On Feb 15, 11:38=A0pm, "Karl Johanson" <karljohan...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
> <Willie.Moo...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote
>
> >Since the beginning of the industrial age until the mid 1960s the cost
> >of energy decreased steadily at an average rate of 4.9% per annum.
> >Noting this trend experts in the 1950s predicted that somewhere
> >between 1970 and 1990 energy would be too cheap to meter.
>
> Can you provide any references on who made the predictions and what they
> said? I haven't seen any time scale predictions on the "too cheap to
> meter" idea.
>
> While talking about the possibility of fusion energy in the future (on
> Sept 16, 1954), Admiral Lewis L. Strauss said:
> =A0 =A0 =A0 "It is not too much to expect that our children will enjoy
in
> =A0 =A0 =A0 their homes electricity too cheap to meter, -- will know of
gr=
eat
> =A0 =A0 =A0 periodic regional famines in the world only as matters of
> history, --
> =A0 =A0 =A0 will travel effortlessly over the seas and under them and
thro=
ugh
> the
> =A0 =A0 =A0 air with a minimum of danger at great speeds, -- and will
> experience a
> =A0 =A0 =A0 lifespan far longer than ours as disease yields and man
comes =
to
> =A0 =A0 =A0 understand what causes him to age."
>
> The idea was that the fuel costs of fusion power would likely be so low,
> compared to the overall cost of the power plant, that the expense of
> meters, meter reading and & specific (rather than generic) billing might
> make it easier to sell power at a flat (unmetered) rate. You likely get
> you local phone service flat rate. It isn't free, but it is unmetered
> and you pay the same whether you use the phone 24/7 or if you never use
> it. If you live in an apartment you may get your electricity unmetered.
> Your landlord might include the cost of the electricity you use flat
> rate, included in your rent (so he doesn't have to by meters & spend the
> time reading them every month). If you stay in a hotel the electricity
> in your room is unmetered, as there is an assumed average cost, which is
> factored in by the owners when they set the prices for the room. Two of
> the places I worked at had unmetered power, paid for at a flat rate. So
> many people already consider electricity "too cheap to meter" in many
> circumstance.
>
> Karl Johanson
We would be the age of Admiral Straus' grand children - so that puts a
time frame around this reference. The CAPEX is an important part of
any power system that has nearly zero fuel costs. So, his projection
to be accurate, requires nearly zero CAPEX as well. In any nuclear
system energy release is so large for the fuel used that recurring
fuel costs are nil. Your points then relate to capital expense.
In the energy business the figure of merit is dollars per watt. Since
a watt of capacity can generate about 8.7 kWh in a year, and since a
dollars worth of capital costs about $0.09 per year - each $/watt -
adds about a penny a kilowatt hour to the cost of electricity.
Currently, DOE says nuclear sources run approximately $3 per watt -
so, that's $0.03 per kilowatt-hour generation costs. There are
wheeling costs of about $0.02 per kilowatt-hour. Those go away if you
build a tiny energy appliance that lets you plug in a house and
operate for a decade or so without refueling or replacing.
An energy appliance that costs less than $1 per watt would produce
electricity at less than $0.01 per kilowatt-hour generation costs -
installed in each home along with the hot water heater and furnace -
andoperated a decade without refueling - that is likely what he had in
mind.
Is that reasonable?
Well consider the power and cost of a nuclear weapon. That's the
existence proof of a very high power generator - that costs very
little per watt. Less than a millionth of a penny per watt!!
Draw a continuum between the nuclear reactors that we use today that
cost $3 per watt - and the nuclear weapons that we use today that cost
nothing - million watts for a penny is essentially paying nothing for
a watt. - and you can see the logic of the Admiral's statement.
The problem we have had is that the knowledge to adapt nuclear weapons
to nuclear power has been curtailed circumvented, contained - for
legitimate public safety reasons.
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