:: Now, Ford or any other manufacturer is in the business of selling
:: cars, not miles. In the case of privately owned vehicles there is a
:: vehicle for every two people. In the case of driverless taxies,
:: there is a vehicle for every twenty people.
: David Friedman <ddfr@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
: If there is a vehicle for every twenty people, and mileage per person
: stays the same, then mileage per car per year is ten times as high.
: It's not the number of cars out there that matters to Ford but the
: number of cars purchased each year.
So the issue is, do the cars get retired with the same odometer reading
(on average)? And one could argue either way; I can make the annecdotal
argument that I know of somebody who bought a car every two years, no
matter how much they drove it; sometimes as little as a couple thousand
miles a year. The proverbial little old lady (though this was in fact a
larger-ish man). Of course... then they sold it to somebody else, who
was thus saved the hassle of buying a new car... <fx genture="balancing
hands"> shrug </fx> But one could argue that people like that would mean
more private and less rental cars sold over time.
On the other hand, one could argue that rental fleets tend to be be
"used up" faster before they are retired, so that would mean more
rental and less private cars sold over time. Plus which, I can argue
annecdotally that I know somebody who's still driving around in
a 1988 car with a third of a million miles on it and no plans to
replace it for sentimental reasons.
Or, one could argue that rental companies would have the werewithal to
keep the cars better maintained, and thus on the road longer...
and back and forth and back and forth.
But if cars are retied with similar odometer readings (and I don't see
any persuasive reason why that wouldn't be the case), then it's a wash
whether the cars are rented or owned, in the steady state.
: Ford seems perfectly happy to sell cars to Avis and Hertz. And insofar
: as people care about cars as status, they will presumably prefer more
: luxurious taxis in a world where most cars are taxis.
Indeed, Hertz seems to do a brisk business in "flashy car" rentals.
At least, they advertise it, and they seem to have them in stock.
Wayne Throop throopw@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
http://sheol.org/throopw
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