On Apr 10, 1:10=A0pm, mstem...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
(Michael Stemper) wrote:
> In article <p20tc5xtek....@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>, Nate Edel writes:
> >Keith F. Lynch <k...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
> >> If no government had ever locked up any murderer, how long would it
> >> take all the free-lance and gang killers -- Charles Manson's
"family,"
> >> the DC snipers, Ted Bundy, the Unabomber, Tim McVeigh, the Son of
> >> Sam, Jack the Ripper, Ed Gein, Jeffrey Dahmer, the Mafia, MS-13, the
> >> Bloods, the Crips, etc. -- to approach this total? =A0Even if none of
> >> them were ever stopped by any of their would-be victims, I expect it
> >> would take thousands of years.
>
> >I doubt it would take that long; with the current murder rate in the US
> >alone, there are about 15,000 murders a year in the US. That would be
600=
> >years to reach 9 million.
>
> More quibbling. Presumably, if none of the murderers were ever locked
up,
> at least some of them would continue murdering, thus raising the murder
> rate above its current value.
We can look at periods when police forces didn't exist, or were
ineffective,
to get some notion. Here's an interesting graph:
http://andrewhammel.typepad.com/german_joys/2007/04/german_murder_r.html
It shows German murder rates from about 1250 to the present. During
most of
that period, the rate was about 10x the present one, with a peak about
100x
in the late 14th century. (The chart shows only 'ordinary' murders,
not wars
or genocides). Note that the peak was well before the development of
handguns.
So, if murder wasn't punished, the rate would probably rise at least
severalfold.
pt
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