In article
<10fbf6b7-5383-49da-aeef-da6499aaec64@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>,
cryptoguy <treifamily@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
> On Apr 10, 1:10 pm, mstem...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
(Michael Stemper) wrote:
> > In article <p20tc5xtek....@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>, Nate Edel writes:
> > >Keith F. Lynch <k...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
> > >> If no government had ever locked up any murderer, how long would it
> > >> take all the free-lance and gang killers -- Charles Manson's
"family,"
> > >> the DC snipers, Ted Bundy, the Unabomber, Tim McVeigh, the Son of
> > >> Sam, Jack the Ripper, Ed Gein, Jeffrey Dahmer, the Mafia, MS-13,
the
> > >> Bloods, the Crips, etc. -- to approach this total? Even if none of
> > >> them were ever stopped by any of their would-be victims, I expect
it
> > >> would take thousands of years.
> >
> > >I doubt it would take that long; with the current murder rate in the
US
> > >alone, there are about 15,000 murders a year in the US. That would be
600
> > >years to reach 9 million.
> >
> > More quibbling. Presumably, if none of the murderers were ever locked
up,
> > at least some of them would continue murdering, thus raising the
murder
> > rate above its current value.
>
> We can look at periods when police forces didn't exist, or were
> ineffective,
> to get some notion. Here's an interesting graph:
>
> http://andrewhammel.typepad.com/german_joys/2007/04/german_murder_r.html
>
> It shows German murder rates from about 1250 to the present. During
> most of
> that period, the rate was about 10x the present one, with a peak about
> 100x
> in the late 14th century. (The chart shows only 'ordinary' murders,
> not wars
> or genocides). Note that the peak was well before the development of
> handguns.
>
> So, if murder wasn't punished, the rate would probably rise at least
> severalfold.
Dubious.
To begin with, the absence of a police force doesn't mean that murder
isn't punished. It doesn't even mean that it is punished less
frequently. Consider Iceland during the saga period, or England in the
18th century.
As best I recall the English data, murder rates fell a lot between about
the 14th and the 18th century, although the first English police force
was created by Robert Peel in the 19th century. I wouldn't be surprised
if it's an effect of rising income, but I don't actually know.
--
http://www.daviddfriedman.com/
http://daviddfriedman.blogspot.com/
Author of _Harald_, a fantasy without magic.
Published by Baen, in bookstores now
|
