Re: Texas Polygamists--sf in real life?

In article <ddfr-075FB0.23443726042008@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>,
David Friedman  <ddfr@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>In article <fuvbk8$m9c$1@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>,
> nospam@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
 (Paul Ciszek) wrote:
>
>> In article <ddfr-8D886F.10403225042008@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>,
>> David Friedman  <ddfr@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>> >
>> >Given that we now know that the pregnant sixteen year old with an 
>> >abusive 50 year old husband who made the call was a 33 year old
Colorado 
>> >woman with no connection to the sect outside her own imagination, we 
>> >ought to revise down our assumptions about what was actually going on.

>> 
>> The pregnant 15 year olds and 16 year olds with multiple children that
>> were discovered as a result of the raid remain, though.  
>
>If I've correctly followed the current status of the case, law 
>enforcement claims a total of three pregnant under 17 (or maybe under 
>18?) year olds, and the FLDS says it's only two.

According to NPR today, there are 29 girls between the ages of 14 and 17
that are either pregnant or already mothers.

>As best I can work out 
>from a little googling a few days ago, about 4% of texas females 15-17 
>get pregnant each year, so it's hard to see how a total of two or three 
>of them out of 400+ minors represent, in themselves, a sufficiently 
>drastic situation to justify taking all 400+ minors away from their 
>parents.

1) Assuming approximately half the 400 kids are girls, more like 14%
   of them are pregnant or post-pregnant.

2) If those 4% in the general population are getting knocked up by older
   men--which many probably are--then those men should be hunted down
   and convicted.  Giving young girls to older men who have found favor
   with the prophet is an established pattern in the FLDS, so there is
   good reason (i.e., probably cause) to believe that that is what has
   happened to most of the 29 in custody.  That's what all those DNA
   tests are for.


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