On Tue, 05 Feb 2008 15:34:41 -0700, Keith Morrison <keithm@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
wrote:
>On Sun, 03 Feb 2008 10:22:27 -0800, John Schilling
<schillin@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>
>>>> In JEP's CoDominium universe, humans develop the model that predicts
>>>> Alderson tramlines between 2004 and 2008. In 2008, the first
starships
>>>> leave the systems.
>>>> I can't recall how far out the nearest tramline was but I
>>>> think it was beyond Saturn.
>>>> In reality, if someone dumped an FTL drive like that in our
>>>> laps, one that offers no quick solution to getting around in stellar
>>>> systems, where the jump point isn't conveniently located, how long do
>>>> you think it would take before someone got around to sending a probe
>>>> out to the jump point?
>>>I suspect it would happen pretty quickly, easily within a decade.
>>Who do you imagine is capable of sending spacecraft to Saturn within a
>>decade? NASA couldn't do it, not even with unlimited funding and the
>>certain knowledge that every NASA employee would be tortured to death
>>if they failed. Nor ESA, nor the Russians, nor the plucky unstoppable
>>Chinese what are going to rule the world within a decade. The United
>>States Air Force would be a long shot, and who else is there?
>There's a lot of assumptions being unsaid, isn't there?
>First, what's the probe going to do? Is it there to confirm the jump
point is present, or
>jump? What does it need to do either (or both) of those? If it's
supposed to jump, is it
>supposed to take some kind of readings on the other side, or just take
some pictures and
>jump back?
>I can see everything from a small, cheap, simple probe that could be done
fast with mostly
>off the shelf (well, at least already existing plans) tech to others that
required a lot
>of infrastructure before you could even think about it.
>Assume a simple case: how fast could one send a small probe (assume a
nuclear power
>source, which is fairly off-the-shelf), equipped with a basic camera, the
required data
>storage and transmitting gear, and required software, on a flyby recon
mission to a jump
>point at Saturn's distance?
>For reference, New Horizons only took a year to make Earth-Jupiter, and
that's with pure
>conventional propulsion and power. So, if you allow some decent geometry
at the start,
>the main delay in getting out to Saturn distance isn't the flight time,
it's in building
>the probe.
New Horizons, of course, didn't stop at Jupiter. And a fast flyby of an
invisible target is almost certainly not what we are looking for here.
Too high a probability of a null result for reasons other than the simple
absence of a jump point, and no way to distinguish between the various
sorts of null results without waiting for a new probe.
If you're absolutely certain of exactly what you're going to find, you
don't really need a probe at all and aren't going to be rushing to build
one. Otherwise, you need an orbiter.
Getting an orbiter to Saturn, takes about six years of flight time with
existing propulsion systems, and with a wait of up to a year for a launch
window. And it requires a probe somewhat larger and more complicated than
New Horizons, even if the payload is no more ambitious.
New Horizons took three years to plan and three more to build, and it
took our heaviest reliably-available launcher to send on its way. So,
baseline >3 (planning) + >3 (building) + 0-1 (launch window) + 0-1
(launcher unreliability) + ~6 (flight time) years for a Saturn orbiter
built by any of the Usual Suspects. With significant uncertainty, so
call it 15+/-5 years overall.
Substantially more ambitious missions, would require only slightly more
time, though much more money and risk. If we really, really wanted to,
we could probably put a manned outpost on a Saturnian moon in 20+/-5
years.
--
*John Schilling * "Anything worth doing, *
*Member:AIAA,NRA,ACLU,SAS,LP * is worth doing for money" *
*Chief Scientist & General Partner * -13th Rule of Acquisition *
*White Elephant Research, LLC * "There is no substitute *
*John.Schilling@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
* for success" *
*661-951-9107 or 661-275-6795 * -58th Rule of Acquisition *
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