Re: What would make you believe?

Wayne Throop <throopw@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
> : Quadibloc <jsavard@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
> : After all, the very slim possibility he is telling the truth is enough
> : to improve the odds of winning the $65 million significantly.
> 
> "Significantly"?  I don't quite see that.

Then consider this: with a $65 million jackpot and $1 tickers, chances
of winning the jackpot are less then 1/65 million. Let's say it's
0.00000001 (and that's probably generous). Now what do you think the
chances are that this man is speaking the truth? 0.001? 0.000001? I
completely agree that he's most likely lying or insane, and I'd give
the combined odds of that 0.999999, but that still leaves a 0.000001
chance that he is actually from the future. This chance is 100 times
bigger than the chance of winning the lottery, so my chances of
winning just went up 10000%! You bet I'm gonna buy that lottery ticket,
but I still won't expect to win.

> Hm.  You know, if he were
> privy to information from a conspiracy to fix the lottery, then I
suppose
> *that* would "imprive the odds".  But that seems to be one of the few
> scenarios worth evaluating where there'd be an increased chance.
> 
> Come to think of it, though, that mighe well be a disincentive
> to actually buying the ticket.  One would have to suspect an attempt
> (for some unknown reason) to implicate one in the conspiracy (possibly
> so the actual culprits could get away with it.

What would they be getting away with if I won $65 million? I'll grant
you that the chance that he's in some sort of conspiracy is vastly
bigger than the chance that he's from the future (but not as big as
the chance that he's a loon), but I don't see how me winning $65
million in a bona fide lottery would implicate me in anything.


mcv.
-- 
Science is not the be-all and end-all of human existence. It's a tool.
A very powerful tool, but not the only tool. And if only that which
could be verified scientifically was considered real, then nearly all
of human experience would be not-real.                  -- Zachriel