Re: What would make you believe?

mcv <mcvmcv@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
> Wayne Throop <throopw@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>> : Quadibloc <jsavard@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
>> : After all, the very slim possibility he is telling the truth is
enough
>> : to improve the odds of winning the $65 million significantly.
>> 
>> "Significantly"?  I don't quite see that.
> 
> Then consider this: with a $65 million jackpot and $1 tickers, chances
> of winning the jackpot are less then 1/65 million. Let's say it's
> 0.00000001 (and that's probably generous). Now what do you think the
> chances are that this man is speaking the truth? 0.001? 0.000001? I
> completely agree that he's most likely lying or insane, and I'd give
> the combined odds of that 0.999999, but that still leaves a 0.000001
> chance that he is actually from the future. This chance is 100 times
> bigger than the chance of winning the lottery, so my chances of
> winning just went up 10000%! You bet I'm gonna buy that lottery ticket,
> but I still won't expect to win.

Just out of curiosity, how did you decide on that probability? You think 
that there's a one-in-a-million chance that he's actually from the future.

There are probably a million people on the planet who think they're from 
the future. Do you really think it's likely that one of them is *right* 
about it?

One in a million seems inconceivably generous to me. Despite hanging out 
in this group, I'm not particularly SF-credulous in real life (and why 
should I be? These sorts of things just don't happen) and I would put the 
chances that he's telling the truth at something more like one in one 
quintillion, or lower yet.

-- 
Michael Ash
Rogue Amoeba Software