Doc O'Leary <droleary.usenet@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>> > From a plot device standpoint, the question is
>> > whether it changes history like a pebble in a stream, or more like a
dam.
>>
>> I disagree. There is nothing that says that a time traveler's effects
must
>> be of similar magnitude on a micro and macro scale.
>
> There's nothing that says *anything*. That is why you have to establish
> a scientific hypothesis in the first place. So the author has to decide
> early on how things work and stick to it or risk ruining the story.
But I was talking about a lottery, not history. When judging the
plausibility of a time traveler still being able to predict the winning
lottery numbers, the question of whether history is chaotic is irrelevant.
>> Personally I believe that history is probably a "cannonball balanced
>> occasionally on its tip", in that it usually will carry on roughly the
>> same no matter what, but that there are occasional important junctures
>> where a small force can produce a major outcome. But any interpretation
of
>> history is compatible with any interpretation of the effects on the
>> lottery drawing.
>
> You can attempt to use that as a plot outline, but how well it works is
> up to the reader.
I'm not attempting to use anything. I'm just curious as to just how
sensitive lottery drawings are to initial conditions.
> Another oversight of yours is claiming to know what
> is "important" to an anthropomorphic history. Just because the time
> traveller goes back to stop a nuclear war doesn't mean that event is
> significant.
Where did I claim to know anything? I said "I believe", and it means just
that. I claim no knowledge whatsoever. Furthermore, the word "important"
was only intended to be defined as, basically, points which are sensitive
to initial conditions.
> You assume that the big stuff is stable and the chaotic
> stuff has a tipping point, but it may be a better story to display the
> exact opposite behavior.
This is completely nonsensical. I'm using "chaotic" in the mathematical
sense of extreme sensitivity to initial conditions. It has a tipping point
*by definition*. It can't display the exact opposite behavior, because if
it did it wouldn't be chaotic anymore.
--
Michael Ash
Rogue Amoeba Software
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