Re: Nothing like oil?

David Tate wrote:
> Is there any SF, especially recent SF, set in a mid-future (200-500
> years out or so) in which the fossil fuels have been used up, and no
> really satisfactory substitute[1] was found to replace them?  I
> suppose that would be post-apocalyptic steampunk of a sort...
> 
> David Tate
> 
> [1] A satisfactory substitute would have an EROI of at least 10 to 1,
> a ****table high-energy-density form usable for things like high-speed
> air trans****t, no catastrophic environmental side-effects, and an
> availability and economic cost to produce that would make most or all
> of the current economy still feasible.

Yawn. I'm tired of this discussion.

We've had it in the appropriate technical communities since (at least) 
the '70's*. What's ending are the supplies of cheap _petroleum_. Nothing 
else is changing. As those run out and get more expensive, other, easily 
understood substitutes (alcohol, syn-fuel, electric batteries, hydrogen 
fuel cells, etc.) from non-petroleum energy sources can take up the 
slack. You _will_ pay more for energy, maybe twice or three times as 
much as today. Your standard of living will go down slightly.

The discussion we _should_ be having is how to manage this changeover. 
That's a political discussion, not a technical one. If we'd emphasized 
it in 1980 when, instead, the US went back to sleep on this issue, we'd 
be laughing at the stupid Arabs, and Hugo Chavez would be flacking for 
some third rate discount fuel distributor, not Venezuela.

Nope, we all had to drive SUV's, and no one thought about electricity 
usage and fuel refinery capacity until California had to turn down the 
air conditioning, a hurricane stopped production for a year in the Gulf 
Coast, and Al Gore won an Oscar and a Nobel prize (Al Gore? Nah! Really?).

A pox on all our houses until we start managing our future instead of 
ignoring it. Recent history reads like _bad_ sci-fi.

Disgustedly,
Jack Tingle

*Arguably, the technical discussion started in the 1930's or even in the 
teens. You pick your citations and lays your bets.