Re: Nothing like oil?

David Tate wrote:
> On Feb 17, 9:43 am, Jack Tingle <wjtin...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:

>> As those run out and get more expensive, other, easily
>> understood substitutes (alcohol, syn-fuel, electric batteries, hydrogen
>> fuel cells, etc.) from non-petroleum energy sources can take up the
>> slack.
> 
> No, they can't.  Not without orders-of-magnitude breakthroughs in EROI
> relative to current technology.  When it takes you .8 ergs to produce
> 1 erg of energy from a hydrogen fuel cell or biodiesel, you are not
> going to replace 20-for-1 petroleum with that.  The problem is
> chemistry, not economics.  Most ethanol produced in the US today
> actually consumes more energy in its production than you can get back
> by burning it.
> 
>> You _will_ pay more for energy, maybe twice or three times as
>> much as today. Your standard of living will go down slightly.
> 
> Slightly?  What were you planning to power the airplanes with?  I'm
> curious which alternative power tech that we already know how to do
> can even come close to replacing fossil fuels.
> 
>> The discussion we _should_ be having is how to manage this changeover.
> 
> You can't have that discussion until you know what you're changing
> over to.

You miss the point. Airplanes, for the indefinite future will be powered 
with kerosene. It just won't be cheap kerosene from rock oil. It'll be 
synthesized using waste steam and electricity (probably from a nuclear 
reactor; outside bet: solar power) from feed stocks like coal and 
garbage (or turkey guts, it doesn't matter). There will be less of it 
available. The question is how do you manage that 2x or 3x cost shock to 
the overall society?

We can live quite comfortably at one third of the energy demand we have 
today, if we plan for it. If we ignore it, we will learn (yet again) the 
benefits and perils of crisis management. (1. It's easy; the crisis is 
clear, just manage it. 2. No one gets what they want, or likes the
outcome.)

Your yearly vacation ticket will cost 50% more than it does today. And 
the airplane won't fly at Mach 0.8, it'll be a turboprop that flies at 
Mach 0.4. The trip will take twice as long and be a lot less 
comfortable. Should something be done to decrease the demand for, and 
dependence on, air travel in advance of a crisis?

Your home heating bill will be twice or three times what it is today, 
less any capital improvements you make to decrease it. Should you get 
tax credits to do those improvements now, rather than when we become 
desperate? Should tax policy be changed to discourage larger houses, in 
favor of town houses nearer the city, or even large centralized 
apartment/condo blocks to decrease commuting and heating bills?

Material that has to come long distances will be pro****tionately more 
expensive. So will stuff that needs a lot of cheap energy to produce, 
like aluminum. How should we be planning for this? Should we somehow 
encourage large centralized piece-part factories to be broken up into 
smaller complete-product factories and decentralized, for instance? 
Remember, Henry Ford (who was damned sharp) was wrong about River Rouge 
_even at the time he built it_. The economy didn't reward a massive, 
inflexible, centralized, complete-product factory. It's easy to 
misunderstand what works best, especially if you don't think about it.

The ethanol energy return bugaboo came about because of specific market 
conditions. There are sources with decent energy returns, just not ones 
that are politically popular like ethanol.

Corn ethanol spiked in demand because of specific market conditions. The 
Midwestern congress people who mandated questionable fuel additives 
never heard of MTBE. They thought they were cleverly making the oil 
companies use ethanol from their corn farmer constituents. When much 
later it turned out MTBE was a ground water polluter, they changed the 
laws abruptly and ethanol spiked up in price.

That has nothing to do with energy return, and everything to do with bad 
science, bad legislation, and poor planning.

Regards,
Jack Tingle