Re: Authors Who Should Retire

On Mon, 10 Mar 2008 23:44:18 -0500, "Ken from Chicago"
<kwicker1b_nospam@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:

>"Lawrence Watt-Evans" <lwe@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote in message 
>news:r52ct39sse3ccbcoabq3m5i61b8bbpvmlc@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>> On Mon, 10 Mar 2008 21:08:39 -0700 (PDT), veritas
>> <veritas.fla@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>>
>>>The sole reason for the thread:  Established authors in decline are
>>>keeping new authors with better work from being published.
>>
>> No, they aren't.  That's not how the business works.
>
>Okay, really seriously this time, what is the impetus for publishers to
take 
>risks on new unsold talent over reliable, proven best-selling authors?

Oh, you've moved the goalposts.

New, unsold talent doesn't need to compete with reliable, best-selling
authors; new, unsold talent only needs to compete with midlist stuff.
Joe Newbie doesn't need to take a slot from J.K. Rowling, only from,
say, Philip Jose Farmer.  And the impetus for a publisher to take a
risk on a new talent over a Phil Farmer is that the new talent might
turn out to be the next J.K. Rowling, while after fifty years it's a
pretty safe bet that Phil Farmer is only ever going to be Phil Farmer.

There's a suspicion among many writers that it's now easier to sell a
first novel than a second novel, because a first novel MIGHT be a
runaway bestseller, while a second novel -- well, that writer already
has a track record, and the chains are going to base their orders on
what that first novel sold, rather than on reviews or publisher
marketing push or intuition.  I honestly don't know whether the
numbers bear this theory out, but it's not total nonsense.

Publishers want new writers because they have potential and they work
cheap, same as a baseball team may trade an aging star with a
multi-million-dollar contract for a couple of hot prospects fresh out
of high school.  The Baltimore Orioles recently traded Tejada for five
guys no one ever heard of.

Also -- unlike the spaces on a Major League roster, the number of
publi****ng slots available is not a fixed quantity.  If Tor decides
that Joe Newbie has potential, but they already have ten titles
scheduled for next month, there's nothing preventing them from
publi****ng eleven titles, instead.

It's very unusual for an established writer to break out and become a
bestseller -- not unheard of, but rare.  Generally, the best an
established writer can hope for is slow growth and steady backlist
sales.  A new writer, though -- that's where MOST new bestsellers come
from.  _Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone_ was a first novel,
after all.  Stephen King's first novel was _Carrie_, which had a movie
deal before the paperback hit the stands.

And leaving the money side out, editors get a kick out of finding new
talent.  It's a notch in the figurative belt, something to brag about
at the publisher's lunch.  "I'm the guy who discovered [Hot New
Author]!" looks really good on the resume.

Also, from a purely practical standpoint, there aren't enough reliable
old authors still writing to fill every publisher's schedule.  There
are a LOT of books being published these days.  They have to come from
somewhere, and Heinlein, Herbert, and Asimov are dead.







-- 
My webpage is at http://www.watt-evans.com
The seventh issue of Helix is now at  http://www.helixsf.com